We were not regular updating the website during the memorial day weekend because there just were not enough polls being conducted. The democratic primary has pretty much come to a halt and then, as a pollster, why would you bother polling on a weekend where a large number of people may be on vacation anyways. The disparity between those answering the phone this weekend versus those that do not could be split among income lines and/or other demographic areas causing an imbalance in your poll results.

Nevertheless, there were still a few general election polls that we updated and now have, for the first time in three months, Barack Obama leading John McCain in the electoral vote count.

The reason for the sudden shift is this: Survey USA has Obama ahead in Ohio by 9%. With Ohio’s 20 electoral votes, that is a 40 EV switch.

State #EV Barack Obama John McCain
California 55 47.0 40.0
Pennsylvania 21 45.0 43.0
Ohio 20 48.0 39.0
North Carolina 15 39.0 44.0
Arizona 10 39.0 50.0
Kentucky 8 32.0 57.0
Iowa 7 47.0 38.0
Mississippi 6 39.0 54.0
Nevada 5 40.0 46.0
New Hampshire 4 48.0 43.0
Montana 3 39.0 47.0